Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is a foresight method used to anticipate unpredictable, high-impact events. It is grouped with other future-oriented methods such as horizon scanning, speculative design and backcasting, both as a way of observing and as a way of shaping possible futures.
The book names Scenario Planning as a foresight method for anticipating unpredictable, high-impact events: "foresight methods like Scenario Planning aim to anticipate potential 'wild card' or 'black swan' events, while Resilient Design aims to build systems (social, technical, ecological) capable of absorbing such shocks, adapting, and transforming without catastrophic failure." Within the Observations Component's temporal treatment, it is grouped as a future-oriented observational method: "Methodologies such as trend analysis, horizon scanning, scenario planning, and speculative design are, in essence, forms of observation oriented towards understanding and interrogating potential future contexts." The Procedures Component's Future sub-dimension repeats this framing: "methodologies like backcasting, scenario planning, and speculative design become essential future-oriented procedures, designed to explore and shape potential futures rather than just react to the present."
Related in Community
Entries this one is tied to through the book.
Examples
- Military Coup in Chile (1973) · both placed under Unique Events
- How Buildings Learn (book by Stewart Brand) · discussed together in section 153
- Made to Measure: New Materials for the 21st Century (book by Philip Ball) · discussed together in section 153
Methods
- Resilient Design · both placed under Unique Events
- Forecasting · discussed together in section 126
- Horizon Scanning · discussed together in section 126
- Iterative Design · discussed together in section 126
- Material Ecology · discussed together in section 153
- Participatory Action Research · discussed together in section 126
- Precedent Study · discussed together in section 135
- Speculative Design · discussed together in section 126
Books and references
- Making Futures: Innovation, Design and Democracy · discussed together in section 126
In the Framework
- Observations Component
- Procedures Component
- Technological Component
In the book
- Chapter 2, section 018 · The Temporal Paradox and Event Types
- Chapter 12, section 126 · The Influence of Time on the Observations Component
- Chapter 13, section 135 · The Influence of Time on the Procedures Component
- Chapter 15, section 153 · The Influence of Time on the Technological Component
Mentioned in
Methods