Forecasting

The book situates forecasting within Futures Studies, noting that it was 'sometimes historically associated with predictive forecasting (attempting to pinpoint the future) or overly simplistic utopian/dystopian speculation,' whereas 'contemporary Futures Studies employs a diverse range of rigorous methodologies aimed at systematically exploring plausible, possible, probable, and, perhaps most importantly, preferable futures.' In the Observations Component, it states that insights from observing 'current trends, latent needs, emerging behaviors, and systemic vulnerabilities become the basis for forecasting potential future trajectories,' listing 'trend analysis, horizon scanning, scenario planning, and speculative design' as forms of this future-oriented observation. It cautions that designing responsible futures is 'not solely about generating provocative speculations or technologically sophisticated forecasts.'