Trend Analysis / Historical Trend Analysis

A noisy data line chart with a smoothed upward trend line overlaid in blue. — Wikimedia Commons contributors, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Trend analysis studies market dynamics and user needs to keep design relevant and commercially viable, and is grouped with other future-facing observation methods like horizon scanning and speculative design. In its historical form, it is used together with systems thinking to identify path dependencies that lock in existing practices.

Within the Observations Component, the book states: "Meticulous observation is foundational to Symbiotic Design, influencing design's trajectory and impact beyond aesthetics. It includes market research, trend analysis, and understanding user value, informing economic viability and relevance. Studying market dynamics, trends, and user needs allows designers to align creations with demand, enhancing commercial success." Under the same Component's Influence of Time, it is grouped among future-oriented observational methods: "Methodologies such as trend analysis, horizon scanning, scenario planning, and speculative design are, in essence, forms of observation oriented towards understanding and interrogating potential future contexts." In its 'Historical Trend Analysis' form, the book credits it (with Systems Thinking) with identifying path dependencies: "Systems Thinking and Historical Trend Analysis can help identify these lock-ins, while Transition Design methodologies aim to overcome them."